In listening to President Obama’s state of the union last night there were many populist initiatives that had the obvious election season tone.  One initiative that strikes a cord with many in the HR field is the need to focus on our countries future employment needs and the need to retrain displaced workers with the skills necessary to meet those needs.

Currently it would appear that the United States has an oversupply of workers as we look at the current unemployment rate, underemployment, and those that have given up looking for employment.  Many feel that they have been replaced by technology and for many, it is true.  Our economy has continued to replace worker’s doing repetitive tasks with new technology.  In 2011, our country produced the same amount of goods & services with 7 million fewer workers according to Deloitte Growth Enterprise Services.  

Manufacturing is a prime example of these technology effects.  Manufacturing maintains the highest level of output in our economy yet it has fallen from the largest to the sixth largest employer since 1979.   The Apple Ipod is clear example of this post industrial manufacturing trend as only 20 percent of the value added comes from manufacturing.  The balance comes from highly skilled service functions such as design, marketing, finance and management.

While we are in the midst of this job surplus, there is evidence to suggest a mismatch between jobs in particular occupations and available workers’ skills.   During the downturn, there was aggressive restructuring and up-skilling of the economy that has acerbated the employment picture.  The up tempo change in demand for highly skilled workers will add ten million new jobs by the time we reach full recovery.  What is in question is will we have a supply of skilled and experienced worker’s to keep up with the demand.  After this lost economic decade, the lack of hiring opportunities  may have dried up the pipeline of the skilled worker’s needed.  Also, we know that the overall growth of the labor force will continue to slow to a new low of .2% by 2015.  We can also expect the need for more skilled workers as 37 million baby boomers retire during the next decade.

The fear is that the apparent over supply of worker’s will just be an illusion in a couple years and we may be faced with  too few healthy, well-educated, well-trained workers to satisfy the nation’s economic needs.